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Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Cup Kaysar Arena
Wed, May 13, 2026
2 - 1
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Marat D.
19'
Tolegenov A.
22'
Sovet S.

AI Match Summary

Kaisar Kyzylorda in this Kazakhstan Cup matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kaisar Kyzylorda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Kaisar Kyzylorda
44%
Draws
20%
Tobol
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Tobol have won more games recently than Kaisar Kyzylorda.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Kazakhstan Cup game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Kaisar Kyzylorda Clean Sheet 19%
Tobol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kaisar Kyzylorda Tobol
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 6 12
Draws 13 5
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Premier League
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
2:1
May 13, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Kaisar Kyzylorda
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Kaisar Kyzylorda vs Tobol
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kaisar Kyzylorda Compare

Top Goalscorer Konlimkos B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Tobol Compare

Top Goalscorer Zhumat D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaisar Kyzylorda 36 / 100
Tobol 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kaisar Kyzylorda Tobol

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kaisar Kyzylorda found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Tobol has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Kaisar Kyzylorda has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kaisar Kyzylorda VS Tobol
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Akademiya Ontustik2
Ordabasy4
FC Ekibastuz0
Kaspij Aktau4
Jas Qyran0
Atyrau4
Karshiga Almaty0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan1
Arys0
Aktobe4
Turan1
Yelimay Semey4
Jelaev Nan0
Altai2
Taraz0
Ulytau1
Talas0
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Jaiyq1
Kairat Almaty3
BKS1
FC Astana2
Ansat0
Tobol8
Shakhter Karagandy2
Okzhetpes3
Chromtau1
Zhenis4
SD Family-
Ertis Pavlodar-
Khan Tengri0
Kyzylzhar1
1/8-finals
Ordabasy3
Kaspij Aktau0
Atyrau0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan2
Aktobe2
Yelimay Semey1
Altai4
Ulytau3
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
FC Astana1
Tobol2
Okzhetpes2
Zhenis3
Ertis Pavlodar1
Kyzylzhar2
Quarter-finals
Ordabasy1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan0
Aktobe1
Altai2
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Tobol1
Zhenis2
Kyzylzhar0
Semi-finals
Ordabasy-
Altai-
Kaisar Kyzylorda-
Zhenis-
Final
TBD-
TBD-