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Kakamega Homeboyz vs Mahia

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mahia in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Kakamega Homeboyz
39%
Draws
30%
Mahia
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mahia lately — more wins on the board than Kakamega Homeboyz.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Kakamega Homeboyz Clean Sheet 20%
Mahia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kakamega Homeboyz Mahia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 17
Draws 12 9
Losses 9 4
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Mahia
0:1
Dec 17, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs Kakamega Homeboyz
1:0
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Mahia
0:0
Nov 27, 2024 Premier League
Mahia vs Kakamega Homeboyz
2:0
Apr 6, 2024 Premier League
Mahia vs Kakamega Homeboyz
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kakamega Homeboyz 32 / 100
Mahia 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kakamega Homeboyz Mahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kakamega Homeboyz's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Mahia let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 0.80 goals per match.

Kakamega Homeboyz has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kakamega Homeboyz VS Mahia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kakamega Homeboyz

(Home)
31 May
Police FC
1 : 1
Kakamega Homeboyz
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2
Kakamega Homeboyz
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
03 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
0 : 1
Mahia
Page 1 of 6

Mahia

(Away)
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Mahia
1 : 1
Police FC
03 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
0 : 1
Mahia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mahia34209550:2269
2Leopards34197844:2864
3Police FC341316531:2155
4Nairobi United341411944:3453
5Shabana3414101035:3452
6Kakamega Homeboyz341213947:3749
7KCB341391236:3748
8Muranga341381342:4147
9Tusker341361527:3245
10APS Bomet3411111237:3544
11Mara Sugar3410141030:3044
12Bandari34917826:2644
13Ulinzi Stars341181534:3741
14Mathare United341181531:3541
15Posta Rangers349131231:4040
16Kariobangi Sharks348141230:3338
17Bidco United345121719:4027
18Sofapaka343102119:5119
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)