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Kakamega Homeboyz vs Sofapaka

Kenya Kenya

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Thiongo P.
80' Event
Batambuze S.

AI Match Summary

Kakamega Homeboyz in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kakamega Homeboyz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Kakamega Homeboyz
35%
Draws
32%
Sofapaka
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kakamega Homeboyz lately — more wins on the board than Sofapaka.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Kakamega Homeboyz taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Kakamega Homeboyz Clean Sheet 68%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kakamega Homeboyz Sofapaka
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 8 2
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.38 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.45 0.97
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Sofapaka
2:0
Oct 3, 2025 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Kakamega Homeboyz
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Sofapaka
0:0
Nov 2, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Kakamega Homeboyz
2:0
Jan 19, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Kakamega Homeboyz
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kakamega Homeboyz Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiongo P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Batambuze S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sofapaka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kakamega Homeboyz 95 / 100
Sofapaka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kakamega Homeboyz Sofapaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kakamega Homeboyz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kakamega Homeboyz's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Sofapaka let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Away concern: Sofapaka has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Kakamega Homeboyz VS Sofapaka
0.75 Goals Scored 0.57
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.14
50% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Kakamega Homeboyz

(Home)
31 May
Police FC
1 : 1
Kakamega Homeboyz
23 May
Kariobangi Sharks
2 : 2
Kakamega Homeboyz
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
10 May
Muranga
1 : 0
Kakamega Homeboyz
03 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
0 : 1
Mahia
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Sofapaka

(Away)
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0
Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0
Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)