Sport Picks
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Greece
Greek Cup Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata 
Match Events
14'
14'
Parras A.
21'
21'
Bonetto J.
42'
42'
Sub
Parras A. In: Nikokyrakis V.
Out: Parras A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kalamata
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Kalamata carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Kalamata a 36% chance of winning this.
- Kalamata have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor AEL Larissa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Kalamata Clean Sheet 16%
AEL Larissa Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kalamata | AEL Larissa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 18 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 12 |
| Losses | 6 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.71 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.96 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 17, 2026 Greek Cup
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
1:1
Aug 19, 2025 Greek Cup
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
1:2
Dec 4, 2019 Greek Cup
AEL Larissa vs Kalamata
1:0
Oct 30, 2019 Greek Cup
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
3:0
Feb 13, 2005 Football League
Kalamata vs AEL Larissa
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kalamata Compare
Top Goalscorer Bolivar J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
AEL Larissa Compare
Top Goalscorer Nikokyrakis V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kalamata 36 / 100
AEL Larissa 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kalamata AEL Larissa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kalamata's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Defensive concern: AEL Larissa conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Kalamata has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Kalamata VS AEL Larissa
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kalamata
(Home) 28 Oct
Chrisoupolis
0 : 2 Kalamata
25 Oct
Olympiacos Piraeus
5 : 0 Kalamata
18 Oct
Kalamata
4 : 3 OFI Crete
12 Oct
PAOK
1 : 3 Kalamata
20 Sept
Kalamata
0 : 1 Panathinaikos
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Kalamata
4 : 3 OFI Crete
20 Sept
Kalamata
0 : 1 Panathinaikos
17 Sept
Kalamata
1 : 1 AEL Larissa
13 Sept
Kalamata
3 : 1 Volos
22 Aug
Kalamata
2 : 3 Aris
Page 1 of 3
AEL Larissa
(Away) 01 Nov
AEL Larissa
2 : 1 Olympiacos Piraeus B
28 Oct
AEL Larissa
1 : 0 OFI Crete
24 Oct
Athens Kallithea
1 : 1 AEL Larissa
18 Oct
AEL Larissa
0 : 0 Panserraikos
11 Oct
Marko
1 : 0 AEL Larissa
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Athens Kallithea
1 : 1 AEL Larissa
11 Oct
Marko
1 : 0 AEL Larissa
03 Oct
Niki Volos
2 : 2 AEL Larissa
21 Sept
Pyrgos
0 : 4 AEL Larissa
17 Sept
Kalamata
1 : 1 AEL Larissa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 9 |
| 3 | PAOK | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 4 | AEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 6 |
| 5 | Atromitos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 6 | Kalamata | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 5 |
| 7 | OFI Crete | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 10 | Aris | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 11 | AEL Larissa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 13 | Volos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:8 | 1 |
| 14 | Marko | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 15 | Chrisoupolis | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:7 | 0 |
| 16 | Panserraikos | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:10 | 0 |
Promotion - Greek Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Greek Cup (Play Offs)
