Sport Picks

Estonia

Esiliiga Hiiu Stadium

Elva

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Esiliiga encounter between Kalju U21 and Elva promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Kalju U21 averages 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in recent matches. Elva shows a form average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Kalju U21, 2 wins for Elva, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 02.05.26 ended in a 2:4 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.75 for Kalju U21 and 2.00 for Elva, suggesting the primary value lies in the Elva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Kalju U21

15%

Draws

45%

Elva

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Kalju U21 picked up more points recently compared to Elva.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 2.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 73%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 73%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 22%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%

Kalju U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Elva Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kalju U21	Elva
Matches Played	29	32
Wins	10	15
Draws	4	2
Losses	15	15
Goals Scored	1.62	1.84
Goals Conceded	2.24	1.72
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

02.05.26 Esiliiga

Elva vs Kalju U21

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 0 - 0

2:4

04.10.25 Esiliiga

Elva vs Kalju U21

Possession: 58% - 49% Cards: 0 - 1

0:1

30.08.25 Esiliiga

Kalju U21 vs Elva

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

11.05.25 Esiliiga

Elva vs Kalju U21

Possession: 57% - 56% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

08.03.25 Esiliiga

Kalju U21 vs Elva

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 1 - 3

0:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Kalju U21

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Elva

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kalju U21 38 / 100

Elva 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kalju U21 Elva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Elva or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.8%

1.49

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Kalju U21 44%

Elva 36%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Kalju U21 38%

Elva 47%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Kalju U21 40%

Elva 45%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Kalju U21 42%

Elva 43%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Kalju U21 36%

Elva 50%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Kalju U21 46%

Elva 52%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kalju U21 attacking → ← attacking Elva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kalju U21 have found the net in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Elva have conceded at least one goal in 81% of their last 32 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Kalju U21 remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Elva suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 47

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	18	13	3	2	54:23	42
2	Viimsi JK	17	9	4	4	28:14	31
3	Flora Tallinn U21	15	9	3	3	42:27	30
4	Elva	17	7	2	8	29:30	23
5	Tallinna Kalev	18	6	4	8	35:36	22
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	17	5	5	7	23:36	20
7	Nomme Utd U21	16	5	4	7	31:37	19
8	Levadia U21	17	6	0	11	30:33	18
9	Kalju U21	16	5	2	9	26:40	17
10	FC Tallinn	17	3	5	9	21:43	14