Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Hiiu Stadium, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Musolitin O.
Assist: Orlov M.
13' Event
Siht R.
Assist: Ivanov N.
46'
Sub
Orm R. In: Villota M.
Out: Orm R.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Kalju and Parnu JK Vaprus finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kalju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Kalju
15%
Draws
42%
Parnu JK Vaprus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kalju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Kalju carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Kalju a 43% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Kalju Clean Sheet 14%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kalju Parnu JK Vaprus
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 2.07 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
3:1
May 30, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju
3:1
Apr 26, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kalju Compare

Top Goalscorer Musolitin O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Siht R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Sild J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kalju 75 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kalju Parnu JK Vaprus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kalju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kalju scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Parnu JK Vaprus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Parnu JK Vaprus's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Kalju VS Parnu JK Vaprus
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Kalju

(Home)
20 Sept
Tammeka Tartu
1 : 3
Kalju
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Kalju
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
05 Sept
Flora
2 : 1
Kalju
30 Aug
Kalju
2 : 3
Levadia
Page 1 of 6

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Away)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)