Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Tovuz şəhər stadionu

Kapaz

1 - 3

Neftci Baku

Our Tip

Match Events

27'

Sambou B.

35'

Huseynli R.

(Penalty)

38'

Sambou B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neftci Baku in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftci Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Kapaz

33%

Draws

40%

Neftci Baku

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Neftci Baku have won more games recently than Kapaz.
Win probability leans Neftci Baku's way, sitting at 40%.
Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 78.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%

Kapaz Clean Sheet 10%

Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kapaz	Neftci Baku
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	10	15
Draws	4	6
Losses	18	9
Goals Scored	0.57	2.13
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.57	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.57	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Premier League

Kapaz vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 58% - 60% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

Feb 15, 2026 Premier League

Kapaz vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 45% - 59% Cards: 3 - 0

1:3

Nov 1, 2025 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 54% - 53% Cards: 0 - 4

5:1

May 4, 2025 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 0 - 3

2:2

Mar 5, 2025 Premier League

Kapaz vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 4 - 1

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kapaz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.44

Avg xA / game 0.28

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Sambou B.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Mahmudov E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kapaz 26 / 100

Neftci Baku 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kapaz Neftci Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Neftci Baku has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Difficult form: Neftci Baku registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Kapaz found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (32 games).

Scoring Trends

Kapaz VS Neftci Baku

0.57 Goals Scored 2.13

1.57 Goals Conceded 1.25

57% Over 1.5 100%

29% Over 2.5 88%

14% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sabah Baku	33	24	6	3	75:25	78
2	Qarabag Agdam	33	21	6	6	71:27	69
3	Turan	33	17	8	8	44:27	59
4	Neftci Baku	33	16	11	6	57:32	59
5	Zira FK	33	13	14	6	43:36	53
6	Araz PFK	33	13	7	13	44:58	46
7	SumQayit FK	33	12	5	16	45:49	41
8	Shamakhi	33	9	11	13	31:40	38
9	Imisli FK	33	7	13	13	23:43	34
10	Kapaz	33	8	3	22	25:61	27
11	Gabala	33	7	6	20	32:49	27
12	Karvan	33	3	6	24	23:66	15