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Kaposvar vs Sarbogard - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Hungary Hungary

NB III - Southwest
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kaposvar host Sarbogard in the NB III - Southwest. Kaposvar go into this one as the clear favorite. Recent numbers: Kaposvar at 2.19 goals for, 0.97 against; Sarbogard at 1.15 for, 2.4 against. Head-to-head, Kaposvar have won 1 to Sarbogard's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 26, 2023, ending 0:1. The numbers (2.38 xG vs 1.13) point toward Kaposvar. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Kaposvar
20%
Draws
40%
Sarbogard
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kaposvar lately — more wins on the board than Sarbogard.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Kaposvar taking it.
  • Regular NB III - Southwest form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Kaposvar Clean Sheet 20%
Sarbogard Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kaposvar Sarbogard
Matches Played 31 20
Wins 21 4
Draws 3 2
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 2.19 1.15
Goals Conceded 0.97 2.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2023 Hungarian Cup
Sarbogard vs Kaposvar
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaposvar 40 / 100
Sarbogard 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kaposvar Sarbogard

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kaposvar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kaposvar's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Sarbogard's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 20 matches.

Difficult form: Sarbogard registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Kaposvar VS Sarbogard
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kaposvar

(Home)
03 Oct
Erdi
3 : 1
Kaposvar
26 Sept
Kaposvar
2 : 2
Ferencvaros II
19 Sept
Majosi
4 : 1
Kaposvar
12 Sept
Hatvan FC
1 : 4
Kaposvar
05 Sept
Kaposvar
0 : 1
Pecsi MFC
Page 1 of 7

Sarbogard

(Away)
03 Oct
Ivancsa
4 : 1
Sarbogard
26 Sept
Sarbogard
1 : 1
Budaorsi SC
19 Sept
Erdi
4 : 3
Sarbogard
05 Sept
Sarbogard
2 : 1
Szekszardi
29 Aug
Ferencvaros II
1 : 0
Sarbogard
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pecsi MFC 10 9 1 0 30:4 28
2 Kaposvar 9 5 1 3 23:14 16
3 Budafoki MTE 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
4 PTE-PEAC 9 4 4 1 15:9 16
5 Ivancsa 9 5 0 4 21:20 15
6 Ferencvaros II 9 4 3 2 19:13 15
7 Siofok 9 4 2 3 16:11 14
8 Majosi 9 4 2 3 18:18 14
9 Dunaharaszti MTK 10 4 2 4 17:19 14
10 MTK Budapest II 8 4 0 4 21:14 12
11 Erdi 9 3 3 3 21:21 12
12 Budaorsi SC 9 3 2 4 16:26 11
13 Paks II 10 1 3 6 19:23 6
14 Sarbogard 10 1 2 7 9:24 5
15 Szekszardi 9 0 0 9 4:38 0
Promotion - NB III - Northeast (Promotion - Play Offs)