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Karbala vs Erbil - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Eze I.
Assist: Kofi M.
24' Event
Eze I.
Assist: Kofi M.
71' Event
Eze I.
Assist: Bayesh I.

AI Match Summary

Erbil in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Karbala
35%
Draws
52%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Karbala.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Erbil have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Karbala Clean Sheet 11%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karbala Erbil
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 3 16
Draws 7 9
Losses 19 5
Goals Scored 0.93 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Stars League
Karbala vs Erbil
0:3
May 2, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Erbil
0:2
Jan 23, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Karbala
3:1
Jul 5, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Karbala
4:1
Feb 19, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Erbil
3:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Eze I.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karbala 10 / 100
Erbil 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karbala Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Karbala scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Erbil let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Karbala has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Karbala VS Erbil
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Karbala

(Home)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
30 Oct
Karbala
2 : 2
Al Talaba
23 Oct
Duhok
5 : 2
Karbala
16 Oct
Karbala
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
10 Oct
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

Erbil

(Away)
08 Nov
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
04 Nov
Erbil
6 : 0
Kazma SC
30 Oct
Erbil
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
28 Oct
Erbil
3 : 0
Al Ettifaq FC
22 Oct
Zakho
2 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)