Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Karbala vs Erbil

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Luqman G.
Assist: Rawa Y.
63'
Luqman G.
68' Event
Qabeel M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2024/2025 game between Karbala and Erbil finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Karbala
15%
Draws
64%
Erbil
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Erbil carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
  • Regular Stars League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Erbil have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Karbala Clean Sheet 22%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karbala Erbil
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 2 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 20 5
Goals Scored 0.7 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.85 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.64 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Erbil
0:2
Jan 23, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Karbala
3:1
Jul 5, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Karbala
4:1
Feb 19, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Erbil
3:5
Mar 12, 2023 Stars League
Erbil vs Karbala
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.49
Avg xA / game 0.32

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Luqman G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Qabeel M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karbala 29 / 100
Erbil 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karbala Erbil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Erbil's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Karbala found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (27 games).

Solid form: Karbala remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Karbala VS Erbil
0.4 Goals Scored 1.88
0.2 Goals Conceded 0.88
20% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Karbala

(Home)
16 Aug
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Karbala
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
04 Jul
Karbala
2 : 3
Al-Hudod
27 Jun
Karbala
2 : 4
Al Naft
18 Jun
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
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Erbil

(Away)
16 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
28 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Erbil
20 May
Al Shorta
0 : 2
Erbil
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al-Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al-Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)