Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Karlstad vs Vasalund

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Norra Sola Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Karlstad play Vasalund in the Division 1 - Norra. It looks like a close match. Recently, Karlstad averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Vasalund averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. In past meetings, Karlstad won 4, Vasalund won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Karlstad and 0.94 for Vasalund. This points to a Karlstad double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Karlstad
15%
Draws
38%
Vasalund
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Karlstad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Karlstad picked up more points recently compared to Vasalund.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Karlstad Clean Sheet 24%
Vasalund Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karlstad Vasalund
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.39 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
Karlstad vs Vasalund
5:0
Aug 24, 2025 Division 1 - Norra
Karlstad vs Vasalund
2:3
Jun 8, 2025 Division 1 - Norra
Vasalund vs Karlstad
1:3
Aug 11, 2024 Division 1 - Norra
Karlstad vs Vasalund
2:0
Apr 27, 2024 Division 1 - Norra
Vasalund vs Karlstad
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karlstad Compare

Top Goalscorer Nilsson King E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Miguel W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Vasalund Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karlstad 47 / 100
Vasalund 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karlstad Vasalund

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Karlstad or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Karlstad attacking → ← attacking Vasalund

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karlstad scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Vasalund let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Karlstad went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vasalund lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 42
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hammarby TFF14102238:1132
2Karlstad1493222:930
3FC Arlanda1485123:1029
4FC Stockholm Internazionale1483328:1427
5Enkopings SK1481524:2325
6FBK Karlstad1473423:2024
7AFC Eskilstuna1454523:2419
8Karlbergs1453623:2318
9Umea FC1444620:2416
10FC Jarfalla1443721:2715
11Vasalund1443720:3015
12Assyriska FF1435622:2914
13Gefle1442817:2914
14Sollentuna1427512:1913
15Pitea1423916:329
16IFK Stocksund1415828:368