Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Karvan vs Araz PFK

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Santos F.
50' Event
Santos F.
(Penalty)
54'
Sub
Rustamli R. In: Durrant S.
Out: Rustamli R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Karvan and Araz PFK finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Araz PFK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Karvan
20%
Draws
70%
Araz PFK
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Araz PFK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Araz PFK come out ahead of Karvan on wins alone.
  • Araz PFK are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Araz PFK here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Karvan Clean Sheet 15%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karvan Araz PFK
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 3 10
Draws 5 6
Losses 22 13
Goals Scored 0.73 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Karvan
2:1
Feb 21, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs Araz PFK
0:2
Nov 8, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Karvan
2:1
Apr 27, 2014 I Liqa
Karvan vs Araz PFK
1:3
Oct 12, 2013 I Liqa
Araz PFK vs Karvan
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karvan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karvan 19 / 100
Araz PFK 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karvan Araz PFK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Araz PFK has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Karvan scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Karvan stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Karvan VS Araz PFK
0.75 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Karvan

(Home)
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Karvan
Page 1 of 6

Araz PFK

(Away)
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1
Araz PFK
02 May
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Imisli FK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)