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Karvan vs Kapaz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh
Karvan Logo

Karvan

4 - 1
FT
Kapaz Logo

Kapaz

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Onanuga O.
38' Event
Rustamli R.
38'
Shahverdiyev E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Karvan and Kapaz finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Karvan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Karvan
30%
Draws
33%
Kapaz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Karvan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kapaz come out ahead of Karvan on wins alone.
  • Model gives Karvan a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Karvan Clean Sheet 68%
Kapaz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karvan Kapaz
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 19 15
Goals Scored 0.76 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs Kapaz
4:1
Jan 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Karvan vs Kapaz
0:0
Nov 21, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Kapaz
1:2
Aug 23, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Karvan
2:3
Feb 16, 2014 I Liqa
Karvan vs Kapaz
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karvan Compare

Top Goalscorer Rustamli R.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Turabov E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Kapaz Compare

Top Goalscorer Nabiyev F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karvan 77 / 100
Kapaz 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karvan Kapaz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Karvan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Kapaz conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Karvan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Karvan scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Karvan VS Kapaz
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Karvan

(Home)
08 Oct
Sabail
1 : 1
Karvan
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
Page 1 of 6

Kapaz

(Away)
20 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 1
SumQayit FK
12 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 0
Gabala
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
30 Aug
Kapaz
1 : 0
Turan
15 Aug
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Kapaz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)