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Karvan vs Shimal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Wed, Nov 4, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Karvan host Shimal in the I Liqa. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Karvan at 0.76 goals for, 1.72 against; Shimal at 0.93 for, 2.24 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.25, favoring Shimal. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Karvan
35%
Draws
25%
Shimal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Karvan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Shimal have won more games recently than Karvan.
  • Karvan are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Karvan Clean Sheet 19%
Shimal Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karvan Shimal
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 6
Draws 6 5
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 0.76 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.72 2.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karvan 85 / 100
Shimal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karvan Shimal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Karvan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimal let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Karvan stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Karvan found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Shimal's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Karvan VS Shimal
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Karvan

(Home)
08 Oct
Sabail
1 : 1
Karvan
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3
Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
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Shimal

(Away)
09 Oct
Shimal
1 : 1
FC Khankendi
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 4 4 0 0 13:1 12
2 Gancabasar 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
3 Sabail 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
5 MOIK Baku 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
6 Zaqatala PFK 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
7 FC Khankendi 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
8 Mingachevir 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
9 Shimal 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
10 Baku Sporting 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)