Sport Picks
Karvan vs SumQayit FK
Azerbaijan
Premier League 2025/2026 Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh 
Match Events
51'
51'
Abdullazada S.
(Penalty)
66'
66'
Sub
Jankovic A. In: Mustafaev E.
Out: Jankovic A.
66'
66'
Sub
Badolo C. In: Simon N.
Out: Badolo C.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
12%
15%
73%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SumQayit FK
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- SumQayit FK have won more games recently than Karvan.
- Win probability leans SumQayit FK's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- SumQayit FK have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Karvan Clean Sheet 14%
SumQayit FK Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Karvan | SumQayit FK |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 3 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 22 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 0.73 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.97 | 1.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 7, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs SumQayit FK
1:1
Jan 30, 2026 Premier League
Karvan vs SumQayit FK
0:2
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
SumQayit FK vs Karvan
4:1
Dec 18, 2023 Azerbaijan Cup
SumQayit FK vs Karvan
3:1
Mar 12, 2011 I Liqa
Karvan vs SumQayit FK
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Karvan Compare
Top Goalscorer Mickels J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
SumQayit FK Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Karvan 23 / 100
SumQayit FK 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Karvan SumQayit FK
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SUM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SumQayit FK has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Away concern: SumQayit FK has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Karvan scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Karvan VS SumQayit FK
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Karvan
(Home) 24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1 Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2 Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0 Karvan
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3 Neftci Baku
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0 Karvan
Page 1 of 6
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2 Gabala
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3 Neftci Baku
18 Apr
Karvan
1 : 0 Shamakhi
10 Apr
Karvan
4 : 1 Kapaz
19 Mar
Karvan
0 : 1 Zira FK
Page 1 of 4
SumQayit FK
(Away) 22 May
SumQayit FK
3 : 4 Qarabag Agdam
17 May
Zira FK
2 : 1 SumQayit FK
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1 Araz PFK
02 May
Kapaz
2 : 1 SumQayit FK
25 Apr
Imisli FK
0 : 2 SumQayit FK
Page 1 of 6
17 May
Zira FK
2 : 1 SumQayit FK
02 May
Kapaz
2 : 1 SumQayit FK
25 Apr
Imisli FK
0 : 2 SumQayit FK
12 Apr
Turan
2 : 1 SumQayit FK
19 Mar
Sabah Baku
3 : 1 SumQayit FK
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 33 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 75:25 | 78 |
| 2 | Qarabag Agdam | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 71:27 | 69 |
| 3 | Turan | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 44:27 | 59 |
| 4 | Neftci Baku | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 57:32 | 59 |
| 5 | Zira FK | 33 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 43:36 | 53 |
| 6 | Araz PFK | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 44:58 | 46 |
| 7 | SumQayit FK | 33 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 45:49 | 41 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 31:40 | 38 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 23:43 | 34 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 33 | 8 | 3 | 22 | 25:61 | 27 |
| 11 | Gabala | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 32:49 | 27 |
| 12 | Karvan | 33 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 23:66 | 15 |
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
