Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kashiwa Reysol vs Chiba

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
Kashiwa Reysol Logo

Kashiwa Reysol

4 - 2
FT
Chiba Logo

Chiba

Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Kakita Y.
Assist: Koizumi Y.
39' Event
Koizumi Y.
Assist: Kakita Y.
45' Event
Kuboniwa R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kashiwa Reysol in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kashiwa Reysol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Kashiwa Reysol
15%
Draws
37%
Chiba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kashiwa Reysol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Kashiwa Reysol have won more games recently than Chiba.
  • Kashiwa Reysol are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Kashiwa Reysol have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 16%
Chiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kashiwa Reysol Chiba
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 6
Draws 0 2
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 1.69 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Chiba vs Kashiwa Reysol
0:1
May 23, 2026 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs Chiba
4:2
Mar 7, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Kashiwa Reysol
2:1
Jan 31, 2026 Club Friendly
Kashiwa Reysol vs Chiba
2:1
Feb 9, 2025 Club Friendly
Chiba vs Kashiwa Reysol
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kashiwa Reysol Compare

Top Goalscorer Kakita Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Koizumi Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Kuboniwa R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Takahashi I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kashiwa Reysol 39 / 100
Chiba 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kashiwa Reysol Chiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kashiwa Reysol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chiba let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Kashiwa Reysol scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Kashiwa Reysol has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kashiwa Reysol VS Chiba
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kashiwa Reysol

(Home)
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0
Imabari
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4
Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
11 Sept
Kyoto
2 : 3
Kashiwa Reysol
06 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 2
Yokohama F. Marinos
Page 1 of 6

Chiba

(Away)
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
13 Sept
Verdy
1 : 1
Chiba
09 Sept
Kamatamare Sanuki
0 : 2
Chiba
06 Sept
Chiba
2 : 0
Gamba Osaka
02 Sept
Chiba
1 : 2
Okayama
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashima Antlers 18 15 0 3 31:11 45
2 FC Tokyo 18 13 0 5 32:18 37
3 Machida Zelvia 18 13 0 5 28:22 37
4 Kawasaki Frontale 18 10 0 8 26:28 28
5 Verdy 18 10 0 8 22:26 28
6 Urawa Reds 18 7 0 11 25:22 25
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 18 6 0 12 28:31 20
8 Kashiwa Reysol 18 7 0 11 22:24 20
9 Mito 18 6 0 12 23:39 18
10 Chiba 18 3 0 15 18:34 12
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 18 11 0 7 29:25 35
2 Cerezo Osaka 18 11 0 7 30:21 31
3 Nagoya Grampus 18 10 0 8 33:31 31
4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 18 10 0 8 31:23 30
5 Gamba Osaka 18 10 0 8 31:25 28
6 Okayama 18 8 0 10 26:29 26
7 Shimizu S-Pulse 18 8 0 10 23:25 24
8 Kyoto 18 8 0 10 22:28 23
9 V-Varen Nagasaki 18 7 0 11 21:29 21
10 Avispa Fukuoka 18 7 0 11 21:31 21
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)