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Kastrioti vs KF Oriku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kastrioti host KF Oriku in the Kategoria e Parë. This one's hard to separate. KF Oriku have shipped 1.46 goals a game lately, while Kastrioti have conceded 1.86 and scored 1.36. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.27, favoring Kastrioti. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Kastrioti
20%
Draws
0%
KF Oriku
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kastrioti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kastrioti lately — more wins on the board than KF Oriku.
  • Win probability leans Kastrioti's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Kategoria e Parë form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Kastrioti Clean Sheet 19%
KF Oriku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kastrioti KF Oriku
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 8
Draws 4 2
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.36 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kastrioti 85 / 100
KF Oriku 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kastrioti KF Oriku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kastrioti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

KF Oriku lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Kastrioti found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

KF Oriku let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Kastrioti has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kastrioti VS KF Oriku
1.5 Goals Scored 0.17
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 33%
75% Over 2.5 33%
50% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Kastrioti

(Home)
20 Sept
Sopoti Librazhd
1 : 1
Kastrioti
16 Sept
Kastrioti
1 : 0
Flamurtari
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
06 Sept
Burreli
2 : 2
Kastrioti
07 May
Pogradeci
3 : 0
Kastrioti
Page 1 of 6

KF Oriku

(Away)
20 Sept
KF Oriku
0 : 1
Burreli
16 Sept
Besa Kavaje
5 : 0
KF Oriku
12 Sept
KF Oriku
1 : 2
Bylis
06 Sept
Korabi Peshkopi
1 : 0
KF Oriku
15 Oct
AF Luftetari
2 : 0
KF Oriku
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pogradeci 4 2 2 0 5:1 8
2 Besa Kavaje 4 2 1 1 13:5 7
3 Korabi Peshkopi 4 2 1 1 4:5 7
4 Iliria Kruja 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
5 Bylis 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
6 Kukesi 4 2 0 2 6:6 6
7 Kastrioti 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
8 Burreli 4 1 2 1 5:6 5
9 Sopoti Librazhd 4 1 2 1 5:7 5
10 Beselidhja Lezha 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
11 Flamurtari 4 0 3 1 4:5 3
12 KF Oriku 4 0 0 4 1:9 0
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë (Relegation)