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Kastrioti vs Kukesi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Schepanski G.
67'
Vogli E.
74' Event
Lamellari E.

AI Match Summary

Kukesi in this Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kukesi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Kastrioti
20%
Draws
34%
Kukesi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kastrioti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kukesi lately — more wins on the board than Kastrioti.
  • Model gives Kastrioti a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Kastrioti have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 83.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Kastrioti Clean Sheet 68%
Kukesi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kastrioti Kukesi
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 11
Draws 4 4
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.41 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Kukesi
0:2
Feb 7, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Kukesi
2:1
Nov 3, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Kukesi vs Kastrioti
0:1
Mar 30, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Kukesi
2:0
Jan 19, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Kukesi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kastrioti Compare

Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Kukesi Compare

Top Goalscorer Schepanski G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lamellari E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kastrioti 86 / 100
Kukesi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kastrioti Kukesi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kastrioti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kastrioti scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Kukesi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Kastrioti remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kastrioti VS Kukesi
1.33 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
67% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
33% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kastrioti

(Home)
07 Oct
Kastrioti
3 : 1
Luzi
20 Sept
Sopoti Librazhd
1 : 1
Kastrioti
16 Sept
Kastrioti
1 : 0
Flamurtari
12 Sept
Pogradeci
2 : 1
Kastrioti
06 Sept
Burreli
2 : 2
Kastrioti
Page 1 of 6

Kukesi

(Away)
07 Oct
Kukesi
3 : 2
Erzeni Shijak
02 Oct
Teuta
5 : 0
Kukesi
20 Sept
Kukesi
3 : 0
Korabi Peshkopi
16 Sept
Kukesi
0 : 3
Pogradeci
12 Sept
Iliria Kruja
3 : 1
Kukesi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Laci 33 24 7 2 60:23 79
2 Skenderbeu Korca 33 24 5 4 57:25 77
3 Pogradeci 33 20 8 5 63:31 68
4 Iliria Kruja 33 11 12 10 32:33 45
5 Besa Kavaje 33 10 9 14 41:43 39
6 Kastrioti 33 11 6 16 44:57 39
7 Burreli 33 9 10 14 27:45 37
8 Korabi Peshkopi 33 8 12 13 31:39 36
9 AF Luftetari 33 7 13 13 37:43 34
10 Kukesi 33 8 7 18 31:50 31
11 Apolonia Fier 33 6 10 17 31:44 28
12 Lushnja 33 5 11 17 26:47 26
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 (Relegation)