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World

World Championship 2026 Astana Arena

Wales

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kazakhstan play Wales in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kazakhstan averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Kazakhstan won 0, Wales won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 4, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Kazakhstan and 1.44 for Wales. This points to a Wales double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%

Kazakhstan

24%

Draws

52%

Wales

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

Kazakhstan picked up more points recently compared to Wales.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Kazakhstan Clean Sheet 16%

Wales Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kazakhstan	Wales
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	7	12
Draws	4	10
Losses	18	8
Goals Scored	0.93	1.6
Goals Conceded	1.86	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2025 World Championship

Kazakhstan vs Wales

Possession: 51% - 59% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Mar 22, 2025 World Championship

Wales vs Kazakhstan

Possession: 50% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kazakhstan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Wales Compare

Top Goalscorer Moore K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kazakhstan 25 / 100

Wales 49 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kazakhstan Wales

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wales or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +50%

6.25

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kazakhstan attacking → ← attacking Wales

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kazakhstan scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Wales let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Kazakhstan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Wales lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 46

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0