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Kenya vs Uganda

World World

Friendly International 2025
Mon, Jul 21, 2025
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kenya host Uganda in the Friendly International 2025. Little to choose between these two on current form. Kenya have averaged 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded recently, against Uganda's 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded. Head-to-head, Kenya have won 0 to Uganda's 0, with 5 draws. They last met on Jul 21, 2025, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.06 - 1.06) back Kenya to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Kenya
20%
Draws
29%
Uganda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kenya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kenya come out ahead of Uganda on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Kenya taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Kenya Clean Sheet 20%
Uganda Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kenya Uganda
Matches Played 31 26
Wins 13 12
Draws 7 3
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 21, 2025 Friendly International
Kenya vs Uganda
0:0
Nov 11, 2021 World Championship
Uganda vs Kenya
1:1
Sep 2, 2021 World Championship
Kenya vs Uganda
0:0
Sep 8, 2019 Friendly International
Kenya vs Uganda
1:1
Mar 23, 2017 Friendly International
Kenya vs Uganda
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kenya 85 / 100
Uganda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kenya Uganda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kenya Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kenya found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Uganda conceded in 62% of 26 recent games.

Solid form: Kenya remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Uganda registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kenya VS Uganda
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kenya

(Home)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
30 Mar
Grenada
0 : 3
Kenya
27 Mar
Kenya
1 : 2
Estonia
18 Nov
Senegal
8 : 0
Kenya
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Uganda

(Away)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
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