Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kerry vs Shelbourne

Ireland Ireland

FAI Cup Mounthawk Park
Fri, Jul 17, 2026
3 - 2
06:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Kelly D.
62'
Casey O.
62'
Casey O.

AI Match Summary

Kerry in this FAI Cup matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kerry.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Kerry
17%
Draws
13%
Shelbourne
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Kerry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Kerry haven't matched Shelbourne's recent run of results.
  • Kerry are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal FAI Cup game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Kerry Clean Sheet 18%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry Shelbourne
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 13
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 FAI Cup
Kerry vs Shelbourne
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Connell S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Murphy C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Shelbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelly D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Henry-Francis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 67 / 100
Shelbourne 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry Shelbourne

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Shelbourne's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 33 matches.

Kerry has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kerry VS Shelbourne
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
TBD-
TBD-
Crumlin Utd4
Salthill0
Douglas Hall1
Fanad United0
Castlebar Celtic3
North End United0
TBD-
TBD-
Lucan Utd5
University College Cork2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Liffey Wanderers1
Ringmahon Rangers2
TBD-
TBD-
Baldoyle Utd.2
Leicester Celtic AFC0
TBD-
TBD-
St. Patricks-
TBD-
TBD-
Wexford-
Waterford-
TBD-
TBD-
Cobh Ramblers-
Bangor Celtic4
River Valley Rangers1
College Corinthians2
Killester Donnycarney1
St. Michaels1
Janesboro3
TBD-
Sligo Rovers-
Athlone-
TBD-
Midleton2
Mayfield Utd0
Wayside Celtic3
St Mochta's4
TBD-
Dundalk-
Derry City-
TBD-
Fairview Rangers0
Tolka3
Shamrock Rovers-
TBD-
TBD-
Cork City-
Treaty United-
TBD-
TBD-
UC Dublin-
Kerry-
TBD-
TBD-
Shelbourne-
1/16-finals
Galway United4
Crumlin Utd0
Douglas Hall-
Castlebar Celtic-
Drogheda4
Lucan Utd0
Finn Harps0
Bray1
Ringmahon Rangers-
Bohemians-
Baldoyle Utd.-
Longford-
St. Patricks2
Wexford1
Waterford2
Cobh Ramblers1
Bangor Celtic0
College Corinthians0
Janesboro-
Sligo Rovers-
Athlone3
Midleton0
St Mochta's1
Dundalk3
Derry City-
Tolka-
Shamrock Rovers4
Cork City1
Treaty United1
UC Dublin2
Kerry3
Shelbourne2
1/8-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-