Sport Picks
Kerry vs Shelbourne
Ireland
FAI Cup Mounthawk Park, Tralee 
Match Events
61'
61'
Kelly D.
62'
62'
Casey O.
62'
62'
Casey O.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kerry
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Shelbourne haven't matched Kerry's recent run of results.
- Kerry are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- Kerry have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Kerry, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Kerry Clean Sheet 20%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kerry | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 17, 2026 FAI Cup
Kerry vs Shelbourne
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kerry Compare
Top Goalscorer O'Connell S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Murphy C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Shelbourne Compare
Top Goalscorer Kelly D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Henry-Francis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kerry 42 / 100
Shelbourne 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kerry Shelbourne
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Shelbourne let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Kerry found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Recent resilience: Kerry stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Kerry VS Shelbourne
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kerry
(Home) 18 Sept
Athlone
3 : 0 Kerry
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1 Bray
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1 Kerry
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1 Treaty United
21 Aug
Kerry
1 : 1 UC Dublin
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1 Bray
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1 Treaty United
21 Aug
Kerry
1 : 1 UC Dublin
03 Aug
Kerry
3 : 0 Cobh Ramblers
24 Jul
Kerry
2 : 1 Finn Harps
Page 1 of 3
Shelbourne
(Away) 18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3 Shelbourne
14 Sept
Shelbourne
1 : 2 Drogheda
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1 Derry City
04 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
0 : 0 Shelbourne
28 Aug
Galway United
1 : 1 Shelbourne
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3 Shelbourne
04 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
0 : 0 Shelbourne
28 Aug
Galway United
1 : 1 Shelbourne
06 Aug
Ajax
3 : 1 Shelbourne
02 Aug
Waterford
1 : 0 Shelbourne
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
St. Patricks -
TBD -
TBD -
Wexford -
Shamrock Rovers -
TBD -
TBD -
Cork City -
Liffey Wanderers 1
Ringmahon Rangers 2
TBD -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 2
Leicester Celtic AFC 0
TBD -
Longford -
Waterford -
TBD -
TBD -
Cobh Ramblers -
Athlone -
TBD -
Midleton 2
Mayfield Utd 0
St. Michaels 1
Janesboro 3
TBD -
Sligo Rovers -
Kerry -
TBD -
TBD -
Shelbourne -
Bangor Celtic 4
River Valley Rangers 1
College Corinthians 2
Killester Donnycarney 1
Drogheda -
TBD -
Lucan Utd 5
University College Cork 2
Galway United -
TBD -
Crumlin Utd 4
Salthill 0
Finn Harps -
TBD -
TBD -
Bray -
Treaty United -
TBD -
TBD -
UC Dublin -
Derry City -
TBD -
Fairview Rangers 0
Tolka 3
Wayside Celtic 3
St Mochta's 4
TBD -
Dundalk -
Douglas Hall 1
Fanad United 0
Castlebar Celtic 3
North End United 0
1/16-finals
St. Patricks 2
Wexford 1
Shamrock Rovers 4
Cork City 1
Ringmahon Rangers -
Bohemians -
Baldoyle Utd. 0
Longford 8
Waterford 2
Cobh Ramblers 1
Athlone 3
Midleton 0
Janesboro 0
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 3
Shelbourne 2
Bangor Celtic 4
College Corinthians 5
Drogheda 4
Lucan Utd 0
Galway United 4
Crumlin Utd 0
Finn Harps 0
Bray 1
Treaty United 1
UC Dublin 2
Derry City 3
Tolka 0
St Mochta's 1
Dundalk 3
Douglas Hall 0
Castlebar Celtic 1
1/8-finals
St. Patricks 3
Shamrock Rovers 2
Bohemians 4
Longford 0
Waterford 2
Athlone 1
Sligo Rovers 4
Kerry 0
College Corinthians 0
Drogheda 3
Galway United 2
Bray 1
UC Dublin 1
Derry City 2
Dundalk 8
Castlebar Celtic 0
Quarter-finals
St. Patricks 1
Bohemians 2
Waterford 3
Sligo Rovers 0
Drogheda 1
Galway United 2
Derry City 4
Dundalk 2
Semi-finals
Bohemians -
Waterford -
Galway United -
Derry City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
