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Kerry vs Treaty United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Mounthawk Park, Tralee
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Conroy C.
45' Event
McGrath S.
54'
Sub
Conroy C. In: Whelan C.
Out: Conroy C.

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 game between Kerry and Treaty United finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kerry.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Kerry
15%
Draws
34%
Treaty United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kerry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Treaty United haven't matched Kerry's recent run of results.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Kerry Clean Sheet 68%
Treaty United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kerry Treaty United
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.31 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Treaty United
3:1
Jul 3, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Kerry
2:1
Apr 17, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Treaty United
1:1
Mar 6, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Kerry
2:2
Jan 13, 2026 Club Friendly
Kerry vs Treaty United
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer McGrath S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Perez R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Treaty United Compare

Top Goalscorer Manning R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 41 / 100
Treaty United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kerry Treaty United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kerry Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Kerry scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Treaty United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Kerry went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kerry VS Treaty United
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kerry

(Home)
02 Oct
Finn Harps
1 : 2
Kerry
25 Sept
Kerry
1 : 0
Wexford
18 Sept
Athlone
3 : 0
Kerry
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1
Bray
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
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Treaty United

(Away)
02 Oct
Treaty United
0 : 4
UC Dublin
25 Sept
Treaty United
2 : 1
Finn Harps
18 Sept
Bray
2 : 0
Treaty United
12 Sept
Longford
0 : 2
Treaty United
04 Sept
Treaty United
0 : 1
Wexford
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cork City 34 22 5 7 71:34 71
2 Bray 34 15 8 11 65:49 53
3 UC Dublin 34 15 7 12 61:48 52
4 Cobh Ramblers 34 14 7 13 46:50 49
5 Longford 34 13 9 12 47:45 48
6 Kerry 34 13 9 12 42:40 48
7 Athlone 34 13 9 12 41:40 48
8 Wexford 34 11 8 15 40:51 41
9 Treaty United 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
10 Finn Harps 34 6 7 21 31:68 25
Promotion - Premier Division 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Play Offs)