Sport Picks

Ireland

Division 1 Mounthawk Park

Wexford

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Division 1 encounter between Kerry and Wexford promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Kerry averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in recent matches. Wexford shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Kerry, 2 wins for Wexford, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 15.05.26 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.31 for Kerry and 0.88 for Wexford, suggesting the primary value lies in the Wexford double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Kerry

30%

Draws

40%

Wexford

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Wexford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Kerry picked up more points recently compared to Wexford.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Kerry Clean Sheet 25%

Wexford Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kerry	Wexford
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	7	11
Draws	9	6
Losses	14	12
Goals Scored	1.13	1.21
Goals Conceded	1.6	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

15.05.26 Division 1

Kerry vs Wexford

Possession: 49% - 43% Cards: 4 - 3

2:1

13.03.26 Division 1

Wexford vs Kerry

Possession: 45% - 55% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

10.10.25 Division 1

Kerry vs Wexford

Possession: 50% - 43% Cards: 0 - 1

0:2

27.06.25 Division 1

Wexford vs Kerry

Possession: 45% - 45% Cards: 2 - 3

4:3

16.05.25 Division 1

Kerry vs Wexford

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Kerry

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Wexford

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelliher R.

2 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Wexford Compare

Top Goalscorer Doyle J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kerry 32 / 100

Wexford 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kerry Wexford

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wexford or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Kerry 33%

Wexford 32%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Kerry 29%

Wexford 42%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Kerry 30%

Wexford 40%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Kerry 32%

Wexford 38%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Kerry 27%

Wexford 44%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Kerry 35%

Wexford 46%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kerry attacking → ← attacking Wexford

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry have found the net in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Wexford have conceded at least one goal in 76% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.20 goals per match.

Kerry remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Wexford suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 39

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	22	17	3	2	43:11	54
2	UC Dublin	21	11	3	7	35:19	36
3	Bray	22	9	7	6	40:30	34
4	Cobh Ramblers	22	9	4	9	25:30	31
5	Wexford	22	7	6	9	25:30	27
6	Kerry	22	6	7	9	22:27	25
7	Longford	21	6	7	8	21:26	25
8	Athlone	22	6	6	10	19:27	24
9	Finn Harps	22	5	7	10	20:37	22
10	Treaty United	22	4	8	10	21:34	20