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KF Egnatia vs Apolonia Fier

Albania Albania

Albanian Cup Demrozi Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Buric N.

AI Match Summary

The Albanian Cup game between KF Egnatia and Apolonia Fier finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward KF Egnatia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
KF Egnatia
6%
Draws
4%
Apolonia Fier
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: KF Egnatia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • KF Egnatia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives KF Egnatia a 90% chance of winning this.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Albanian Cup game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and KF Egnatia have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
KF Egnatia Clean Sheet 68%
Apolonia Fier Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric KF Egnatia Apolonia Fier
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 15 6
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Albanian Cup
KF Egnatia vs Apolonia Fier
1:0
Feb 23, 2019 Kategoria e Parë
KF Egnatia vs Apolonia Fier
2:1
Nov 11, 2018 Kategoria e Parë
Apolonia Fier vs KF Egnatia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

KF Egnatia Compare

Top Goalscorer Buric N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Apolonia Fier Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

KF Egnatia 95 / 100
Apolonia Fier 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
KF Egnatia Apolonia Fier

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EGN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

KF Egnatia went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

KF Egnatia scored in 70% of their last 33 games.

Defensive concern: Apolonia Fier conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

KF Egnatia VS Apolonia Fier
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
KF Tirana-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Skenderbeu Korca5
Basania FC2
Iliria Kruja5
Luzi1
Dinamo Tirana-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Besa Kavaje5
Shkumbini Peqin0
Kukesi3
Terbuni Puka1
Bylis-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Laci3
Kelcyra0
AF Luftetari2
KF Oriku0
Vllaznia-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Pogradeci4
Delvina0
Korabi Peshkopi4
Koplik1
Teuta-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Vora6
Maliqi2
Erzeni Shijak0
Librazhd2
KF Egnatia-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Apolonia Fier3
Beselidhja Lezha0
Lushnja2
Butrinti Sarande1
AF Elbasani-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Flamurtari5
Kucove0
KF Valbona-
Tomori Berat-
Partizani-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Burreli3
Albanet1
Kastrioti3
KS Devolli2
1/16-finals
KF Tirana-
TBD-
Skenderbeu Korca4
Iliria Kruja2
Dinamo Tirana-
TBD-
Besa Kavaje3
Kukesi1
Bylis-
TBD-
Laci2
AF Luftetari0
Vllaznia-
TBD-
Pogradeci4
Korabi Peshkopi3
Teuta-
TBD-
Vora2
Librazhd1
KF Egnatia-
TBD-
Apolonia Fier3
Lushnja2
AF Elbasani-
TBD-
Flamurtari9
Tomori Berat0
Partizani-
TBD-
Burreli5
Kastrioti2
1/8-finals
KF Tirana2
Skenderbeu Korca1
Dinamo Tirana3
Besa Kavaje0
Bylis3
Laci2
Vllaznia1
Pogradeci0
Teuta2
Vora0
KF Egnatia1
Apolonia Fier0
AF Elbasani2
Flamurtari1
Partizani3
Burreli0
Quarter-finals
KF Tirana0
Dinamo Tirana4
Bylis1
Vllaznia3
Teuta1
KF Egnatia2
AF Elbasani3
Partizani2
Semi-finals
Dinamo Tirana2
Vllaznia1
KF Egnatia3
AF Elbasani2
Final
Dinamo Tirana3
KF Egnatia2