Sport Picks
KF Elbasani vs Pogradeci
Albania
First Division 2020/2021 Elbasan Arena, Elbasani 
AI Match Summary
Pogradeci in this First Division 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pogradeci.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: KF Elbasani
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Pogradeci have won more games recently than KF Elbasani.
- KF Elbasani are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Pogradeci here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
KF Elbasani Clean Sheet 10%
Pogradeci Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | KF Elbasani | Pogradeci |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 33 |
| Wins | 5 | 21 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 19 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 2.09 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.14 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.97 | 1.99 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 6, 2021 Kategoria e Parë
KF Elbasani vs Pogradeci
1:2
Dec 5, 2020 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs KF Elbasani
5:0
Feb 1, 2020 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs KF Elbasani
3:0
Oct 20, 2019 Kategoria e Parë
KF Elbasani vs Pogradeci
2:3
Apr 21, 2019 Kategoria e Parë
Pogradeci vs KF Elbasani
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
KF Elbasani 34 / 100
Pogradeci 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
KF Elbasani Pogradeci
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Pogradeci conceded in 67% of 33 recent games.
KF Elbasani went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Pogradeci lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Pogradeci
0 Goals Scored 2.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
KF Elbasani
(Home) 12 Aug
KF Elbasani
4 : 1 Luzi
02 Aug
Skenderbeu Korca
2 : 2 KF Elbasani
28 Jul
Dinamo City
2 : 2 KF Elbasani
25 Jul
Voska Sport
3 : 1 KF Elbasani
13 Oct
Kastrioti
2 : 0 KF Elbasani
Page 1 of 6
12 Aug
KF Elbasani
4 : 1 Luzi
22 Sept
KF Elbasani
0 : 2 Kastrioti
22 May
KF Elbasani
2 : 0 Flamurtari
08 May
KF Elbasani
4 : 3 Turbina Cerrik
10 Apr
KF Elbasani
0 : 1 Lushnja
Page 1 of 3
Pogradeci
(Away) 12 Aug
Pogradeci
0 : 1 Skenderbeu Korca
08 Aug
Pogradeci
4 : 2 Pelister
31 Jul
Pogradeci
0 : 2 Partizani
25 Jul
Pogradeci
1 : 1 Besa Kavaje
16 May
Teuta
1 : 0 Pogradeci
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16 May
Teuta
1 : 0 Pogradeci
03 May
AF Luftetari
3 : 0 Pogradeci
19 Apr
Laci
2 : 0 Pogradeci
28 Mar
Struga
0 : 0 Pogradeci
22 Mar
Burreli
0 : 3 Pogradeci
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burreli | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 26:10 | 34 |
| 2 | Korabi Peshkopi | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 17:8 | 33 |
| 3 | Dinamo City | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 23:9 | 32 |
| 4 | Vora | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 10:18 | 21 |
| 5 | Beselidhja Lezha | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 6 | Erzeni Shijak | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 15:13 | 19 |
| 7 | KF Oriku | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 7:15 | 15 |
| 8 | Partizani II | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14:25 | 15 |
| 9 | Koplik | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10:26 | 10 |
Promotion - First Division 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - First Division 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KF Egnatia | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 25:5 | 31 |
| 2 | Tomori Berat | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 23:11 | 29 |
| 3 | Pogradeci | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24:14 | 28 |
| 4 | Besa Kavaje | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:13 | 21 |
| 5 | Lushnja | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Turbina Cerrik | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14:16 | 18 |
| 7 | Flamurtari | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7:20 | 10 |
| 8 | KF Elbasani | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5:34 | 1 |
| 9 | AF Luftetari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - First Division 2020/2021 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - First Division 2020/2021 (Relegation Group)
