Sport Picks

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Kitara vs NEC FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 The Royals Park, Butema
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Basangwa R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Kitara and NEC FC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward NEC FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Kitara
30%
Draws
33%
NEC FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kitara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and NEC FC come out ahead of Kitara on wins alone.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Kitara Clean Sheet 68%
NEC FC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kitara NEC FC
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 11 10
Losses 3 4
Goals Scored 1.56 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Premier League
Kitara vs NEC FC
0:1
Jan 24, 2026 Premier League
NEC FC vs Kitara
3:3
Apr 10, 2025 Premier League
NEC FC vs Kitara
2:1
Sep 19, 2024 Premier League
Kitara vs NEC FC
1:2
May 25, 2024 Uganda Cup
NEC FC vs Kitara
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kitara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

NEC FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Basangwa R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kitara 41 / 100
NEC FC 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kitara NEC FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kitara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kitara scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

Recent resilience: Kitara stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: NEC FC conceded in 37% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Kitara VS NEC FC
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kitara

(Home)
17 Sept
Express FC
1 : 1
Kitara
12 Sept
Kitara
2 : 0
Mogadishu City
06 Sept
Mogadishu City
1 : 2
Kitara
29 Aug
Villa
1 : 1
Kitara
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
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NEC FC

(Away)
15 Sept
NEC FC
4 : 1
Uganda Revenue
11 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
NEC FC
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Kampala City
0 : 2
NEC FC
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)