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Kitara vs Villa

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 The Royals Park, Butema
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Kaddu P.
45' Event
Sibira Y.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Kitara and Villa finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kitara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Kitara
30%
Draws
47%
Villa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Villa come out ahead of Kitara on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Kitara Clean Sheet 16%
Villa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kitara Villa
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 17
Draws 9 6
Losses 4 5
Goals Scored 1.54 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.68 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Uganda Cup
Kitara vs Villa
2:1
Apr 30, 2026 Premier League
Kitara vs Villa
2:0
Nov 6, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Kitara
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Kitara
0:0
Jan 7, 2025 Premier League
Kitara vs Villa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kitara Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaddu P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sibira Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Villa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kitara 36 / 100
Villa 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kitara Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kitara's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Kitara stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Villa has conceded goals in 39% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Kitara VS Villa
1 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kitara

(Home)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
BUL
1 : 1
Kitara
15 May
Vipers
1 : 1
Kitara
12 May
Express FC
3 : 2
Kitara
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Villa

(Away)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
13 May
Mbarara City
1 : 3
Villa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)