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Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Premier League 2025/2026 Mong Kok Stadium, Hongkong
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Kanda Y.
57'
Sub
Lau K. In: Camargo E.
Out: Lau K.
61'
Sub
Kanda Y. In: Haddow J.
Out: Kanda Y.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Kitchee and Lee Man Warriors finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kitchee.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Kitchee
39%
Draws
30%
Lee Man Warriors
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Kitchee carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Kitchee Clean Sheet 12%
Lee Man Warriors Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kitchee Lee Man Warriors
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 20 18
Draws 6 6
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.75 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:4
Apr 7, 2026 League Cup
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Kitchee
2:3
Apr 12, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Kitchee
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kitchee Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanda Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Lee Man Warriors Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kitchee 30 / 100
Lee Man Warriors 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kitchee Lee Man Warriors

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kitchee's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Lee Man Warriors's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

Recent resilience: Kitchee stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kitchee VS Lee Man Warriors
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kitchee

(Home)
29 Jul
Prime Bangkok
0 : 4
Kitchee
17 May
Kitchee
4 : 4
Eastern AA
02 May
Tai Po
3 : 0
Kitchee
25 Apr
North District
2 : 2
Kitchee
18 Apr
Kitchee
1 : 4
Lee Man Warriors
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Lee Man Warriors

(Away)
17 May
Lee Man Warriors
2 : 3
Tai Po
10 May
North District
2 : 4
Lee Man Warriors
26 Apr
Lee Man Warriors
0 : 1
Eastern AA
18 Apr
Kitchee
1 : 4
Lee Man Warriors
12 Apr
North District
3 : 3
Lee Man Warriors
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kitchee18162047:1550
2Lee Man Warriors18106247:1936
3North District1887336:2731
4Tai Po1894536:2631
5Eastern AA1874729:2825
6Kowloon City1863922:3321
7Eastern District1854915:1519
8Southern District18531018:2818
9Hong Kong Rangers18521120:3817
10Hong Kong FC18111612:534
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)