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Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Premier League 2025/2026 Mong Kok Stadium, Hongkong
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Kanda Y.
57'
Sub
Lau K. In: Camargo E.
Out: Lau K.
61'
Sub
Kanda Y. In: Haddow J.
Out: Kanda Y.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Kitchee and Lee Man Warriors finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kitchee.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Kitchee
30%
Draws
38%
Lee Man Warriors
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lee Man Warriors

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Lee Man Warriors's 2.55 goals per match outpaces what Kitchee have produced (2.37).
  • 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Kitchee Clean Sheet 10%
Lee Man Warriors Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kitchee Lee Man Warriors
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 19
Draws 6 6
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 2.37 2.55
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:4
Apr 7, 2026 League Cup
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Kitchee
2:3
Apr 12, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Kitchee
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kitchee Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanda Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Lee Man Warriors Compare

Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kitchee 30 / 100
Lee Man Warriors 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kitchee Lee Man Warriors

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lee Man Warriors Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kitchee's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Kitchee stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Lee Man Warriors's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Kitchee VS Lee Man Warriors
2.25 Goals Scored 2.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kitchee

(Home)
17 Sept
Kitchee
0 : 0
Gangwon
12 Sept
Southern District
1 : 3
Kitchee
06 Sept
Kitchee
4 : 1
Eastern District
29 Aug
North District
0 : 0
Kitchee
22 Aug
Hong Kong Rangers
2 : 3
Kitchee
Page 1 of 6

Lee Man Warriors

(Away)
11 Sept
Lee Man Warriors
2 : 1
Eastern District
06 Sept
Hong Kong FC
0 : 3
Lee Man Warriors
28 Aug
Lee Man Warriors
3 : 0
Shatin
23 Aug
Lee Man Warriors
3 : 0
Kowloon City
09 Aug
Pathum United
2 : 2
Lee Man Warriors
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kitchee 18 16 2 0 47:15 50
2 Lee Man Warriors 18 10 6 2 47:19 36
3 North District 18 8 7 3 36:27 31
4 Tai Po 18 9 4 5 36:26 31
5 Eastern AA 18 7 4 7 29:28 25
6 Kowloon City 18 6 3 9 22:33 21
7 Eastern District 18 5 4 9 15:15 19
8 Southern District 18 5 3 10 18:28 18
9 Hong Kong Rangers 18 5 2 11 20:38 17
10 Hong Kong FC 18 1 1 16 12:53 4
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)