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Kiyovu vs Police - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Super Cup Kigali Pele Stadium, Kigali
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Match Events

85' Event
Hamiss H.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Kiyovu
15%
Draws
42%
Police
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kiyovu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Kiyovu have won more games recently than Police.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Kiyovu taking it.
  • Kiyovu have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Kiyovu, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 11%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Kiyovu Clean Sheet 20%
Police Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kiyovu Police
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 10 12
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.1 0.72
Goals Conceded 0.62 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Super Cup
Kiyovu vs Police
1:0
May 24, 2026 Premier League
Police vs Kiyovu
0:0
Jan 11, 2026 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Police
0:0
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Police
1:0
Sep 26, 2024 Premier League
Police vs Kiyovu
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kiyovu Compare

Top Goalscorer Hamiss H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Police Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kiyovu 42 / 100
Police 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kiyovu Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kiyovu found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: Kiyovu stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Police's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Kiyovu VS Police
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
25% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kiyovu

(Home)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
11 Sept
Musanze
1 : 0
Kiyovu
05 Sept
Kiyovu
0 : 1
Gorilla
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Mukura Victory Sports
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
17 Sept
Mukura Victory Sports
0 : 1
Police
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
28 May
Gasogi United
0 : 1
Police
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Kiyovu 1
Mukura Victory Sports 0
Rayon Sport 0
Police 1
Final
Kiyovu 1
Police 0