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Knockbreda vs St. Marys

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Irish Cup 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Montgomery J.
90' Event
McDermott A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Knockbreda advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Knockbreda
22%
Draws
60%
St. Marys
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: St. Marys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Knockbreda carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives St. Marys a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Knockbreda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Knockbreda, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Knockbreda Clean Sheet 16%
St. Marys Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Knockbreda St. Marys
Matches Played 31 8
Wins 7 2
Draws 3 0
Losses 21 6
Goals Scored 1.25 0
Goals Conceded 1.88 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2023 Irish Cup
Knockbreda vs St. Marys
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Knockbreda Compare

Top Goalscorer Montgomery J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader McDermott A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

St. Marys Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Knockbreda 19 / 100
St. Marys 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Knockbreda St. Marys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick STM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St. Marys let in goals in 100% of their last 8 matches.

Difficult form: St. Marys registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Knockbreda found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

Knockbreda VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Knockbreda

(Home)
27 Jun
Knockbreda
0 : 5
Bangor FC
03 Feb
Loughgall
2 : 0
Knockbreda
22 Nov
Wakehurst
2 : 4
Knockbreda
12 Aug
Newry City
3 : 0
Knockbreda
19 Jul
Knockbreda
0 : 5
Ards
Page 1 of 7

St. Marys

(Away)
07 Jan
Knockbreda
2 : 0
St. Marys
17 Aug
St. Marys
1 : 3
East Belfast
19 Aug
Bryansburn
3 : 1
St. Marys
01 Oct
St. Marys
4 : 5
Oxford Stars
07 Nov
Ards Rangers
4 : 1
St. Marys
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Dundela0
Cliftonville5
Coleraine3
Loughgall1
Knockbreda2
St. Marys0
Dungannon3
Ards1
Bangor FC4
Tandragee0
Crusaders6
Dergview0
Portadown2
Banbridge0
Moyola0
Glentoran2
Ballinamallard1
Glenavon2
Newry City1
Harland & Wolff2
Larne3
Crumlin United0
Linfield3
Warrenpoint0
Institute4
Annagh0
Ballyclare1
Dollingstown0
Carrick Rangers1
Ballymena2
Newington FC2
Ballymoney1
1/8-finals
Cliftonville3
Coleraine2
Knockbreda1
Dungannon2
Bangor FC1
Crusaders2
Portadown0
Glentoran3
Glenavon0
Harland & Wolff1
Larne2
Linfield1
Institute0
Ballyclare1
Ballymena4
Newington FC1
Quarter-finals
Cliftonville1
Dungannon2
Crusaders1
Glentoran0
Harland & Wolff0
Larne1
Ballyclare1
Ballymena3
Semi-finals
Dungannon0
Crusaders1
Larne0
Ballymena2
Final
Crusaders4
Ballymena0