Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Samara Arena
Thu, Mar 19, 2026
3 - 2
03:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Batrakov A.
37'
Pechenin K.
38' Event
Komlichenko N.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Russian Cup 2025/2026 game between Krylya Sovetov Samara and Lokomotiv Moscow finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Krylya Sovetov Samara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Krylya Sovetov Samara
6%
Draws
90%
Lokomotiv Moscow
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lokomotiv Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lokomotiv Moscow come out ahead of Krylya Sovetov Samara on wins alone.
  • Lokomotiv Moscow are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Russian Cup 2025/2026 game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Krylya Sovetov Samara Clean Sheet 10%
Lokomotiv Moscow Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Krylya Sovetov Samara Lokomotiv Moscow
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 16
Draws 5 6
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.25 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow
2:0
Mar 19, 2026 Russian Cup
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow
3:2
Aug 31, 2025 Premier League
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov Samara
2:2
Mar 28, 2025 Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Lokomotiv Moscow
5:1
Oct 6, 2024 Premier League
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov Samara
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Krylya Sovetov Samara Compare

Top Goalscorer Oleynikov I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Akhmetov I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lokomotiv Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Silyanov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Krylya Sovetov Samara 10 / 100
Lokomotiv Moscow 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Krylya Sovetov Samara Lokomotiv Moscow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Krylya Sovetov Samara found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Lokomotiv Moscow conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Krylya Sovetov Samara remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Krylya Sovetov Samara VS Lokomotiv Moscow
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Torpedo Moscow0
Baltika2
TBD-
Zenit St Petersburg-
Neftekhimik1
FK Rostov3
TBD-
Dynamo Makhachkala-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Kamaz1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
TBD-
Orenburg-
Arsenal Tula1
Rubin Kazan0
TBD-
Lokomotiv Moscow-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
1/8-finals
Baltika0
Zenit St Petersburg1
FK Rostov0
Dynamo Makhachkala2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
Orenburg0
Arsenal Tula1
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Quarter-finals
Zenit St Petersburg1
Dynamo Makhachkala0
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara3
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Semi-finals
Zenit St Petersburg0
Spartak Moscow1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
CSKA Moscow5
Final
Spartak Moscow1
CSKA Moscow0