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Kumla vs Stenungsunds IF

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kumla play Stenungsunds IF in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kumla averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. Stenungsunds IF averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, Kumla won 2, Stenungsunds IF won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Kumla and 1.63 for Stenungsunds IF. This points to a Kumla double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Kumla
35%
Draws
26%
Stenungsunds IF
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Kumla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Kumla picked up more points recently compared to Stenungsunds IF.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%
Kumla Clean Sheet 14%
Stenungsunds IF Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kumla Stenungsunds IF
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 6
Draws 10 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Kumla vs Stenungsunds IF
1:1
Sep 21, 2024 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Stenungsunds IF vs Kumla
1:1
Jun 1, 2024 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Kumla vs Stenungsunds IF
4:1
Jun 26, 2022 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Stenungsunds IF vs Kumla
1:1
Apr 3, 2022 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Kumla vs Stenungsunds IF
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kumla Compare

Top Goalscorer Gorgol A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Stenungsunds IF Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivarsson E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kumla 38 / 100
Stenungsunds IF 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kumla Stenungsunds IF

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kumla or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kumla attacking → ← attacking Stenungsunds IF

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kumla scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Stenungsunds IF let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Kumla went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Stenungsunds IF lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 27
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Husqvarna15123036:1039
2Skara14103129:1733
3IFK Skovde1491430:1928
4Grebbestad1481527:2025
5Ahlafors1465331:1923
6Stenungsunds IF1453624:2218
7Motala1453618:1718
8Kumla1445515:1617
9Herrestads AIF1445523:2617
10Vanersborgs FK1444619:2416
11Lidkoping1533916:3312
12Karlstad II1424816:2610
13Tord1408615:268
14Vanersborgs IF14221016:408