Sport Picks
KV Mechelen vs Lierse SK
Belgium
Belgian Cup Achter de Kazerne, Mechelen 
Match Events
24'
24'
Lenaerts M.
35'
35'
De Buyser W.
45'
45'
Sub
Konate M. In: Lauberbach L.
Out: Konate M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with KV Mechelen advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and KV Mechelen come out ahead of Lierse SK on wins alone.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- KV Mechelen have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor KV Mechelen, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
KV Mechelen Clean Sheet 12%
Lierse SK Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | KV Mechelen | Lierse SK |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.50 | 0.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 28, 2025 Belgian Cup
KV Mechelen vs Lierse SK
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
KV Mechelen Compare
Top Goalscorer Lauberbach L.
1 Goals Assists Leader van Brederode M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Lierse SK Compare
Top Goalscorer Lenaerts M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
KV Mechelen 30 / 100
Lierse SK 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
KV Mechelen Lierse SK
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
KV Mechelen scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Defensive concern: Lierse SK conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
KV Mechelen went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
KV Mechelen VS Lierse SK
1 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 33%
75% Over 2.5 17%
50% Over 3.5 17%
Recent Form & Match History
KV Mechelen
(Home) 18 Jul
KV Mechelen
2 : 3 Den Haag
15 Jul
Heist
0 : 1 KV Mechelen
11 Jul
Hasselt
1 : 2 KV Mechelen
04 Jul
KV Mechelen
3 : 0 Boom
24 May
St. Truiden
3 : 0 KV Mechelen
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
KV Mechelen
2 : 3 Den Haag
04 Jul
KV Mechelen
3 : 0 Boom
21 May
KV Mechelen
2 : 2 Club Brugge
03 May
KV Mechelen
1 : 0 Gent
26 Apr
KV Mechelen
1 : 4 St. Truiden
Page 1 of 4
Lierse SK
(Away) 18 Jul
Leuven
1 : 0 Lierse SK
03 Jul
Sittard
1 : 0 Lierse SK
28 Jun
Nijlen
0 : 4 Lierse SK
17 Apr
Lierse SK
1 : 1 Sporting Lokeren
11 Apr
OC Charleroi
0 : 1 Lierse SK
Page 1 of 7
18 Jul
Leuven
1 : 0 Lierse SK
03 Jul
Sittard
1 : 0 Lierse SK
28 Jun
Nijlen
0 : 4 Lierse SK
11 Apr
OC Charleroi
0 : 1 Lierse SK
21 Mar
RWDM Brussels
1 : 1 Lierse SK
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
RFC Liege0
Charleroi1
KV Mechelen2
Lierse SK1
RFC Seraing1
Leuven3
Club Brugge6
Eendracht Aalst1
Dender4
OC Charleroi2
SK Beveren1
St. Liege2
Tubize-Braine0
Royale Union SG3
Belisia Bilzen1
Waregem4
Genk3
RWDM Brussels0
Ninove0
Anderlecht2
Cercle Brugge1
Kortrijk0
Gent5
Patro Eisden0
Antwerp3
Eupen1
Knokke0
St. Truiden1
Beerschot VA3
Westerlo2
Heist1
RAAL La Louviere2
1/8-finals
Charleroi2
KV Mechelen0
Leuven1
Club Brugge2
Dender3
St. Liege2
Royale Union SG2
Waregem1
Genk1
Anderlecht3
Cercle Brugge1
Gent3
Antwerp4
St. Truiden3
Beerschot VA1
RAAL La Louviere2
Quarter-finals
Charleroi2
Club Brugge0
Dender0
Royale Union SG2
Anderlecht1
Gent0
Antwerp2
RAAL La Louviere1
Semi-finals
Charleroi1
Royale Union SG4
Anderlecht4
Antwerp1
Final
Royale Union SG3
Anderlecht1