Sport Picks
La Union (Malacitano) vs UCAM Murcia
Spain
Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 
Match Events
19'
19'
El Kounni K.
78'
78'
Raigal J.
86'
86'
Hernaiz A.
AI Match Summary
The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between La Union (Malacitano) and UCAM Murcia finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward La Union (Malacitano).
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: UCAM Murcia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- UCAM Murcia carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans UCAM Murcia's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and La Union (Malacitano) have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
La Union (Malacitano) Clean Sheet 17%
UCAM Murcia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | La Union (Malacitano) | UCAM Murcia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 16 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.76 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 19, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
La Union (Malacitano) vs UCAM Murcia
4:1
Dec 21, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs La Union (Malacitano)
1:2
Mar 23, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
UCAM Murcia vs La Union (Malacitano)
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
La Union (Malacitano) vs UCAM Murcia
1:0
Aug 14, 2024 Club Friendly
La Union (Malacitano) vs UCAM Murcia
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
La Union (Malacitano) Compare
Top Goalscorer El Kounni K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Raigal J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74
UCAM Murcia Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernaiz A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.78
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
La Union (Malacitano) 28 / 100
UCAM Murcia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
La Union (Malacitano) UCAM Murcia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick UCAM Murcia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
La Union (Malacitano) found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: UCAM Murcia conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Solid form: La Union (Malacitano) remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
La Union (Malacitano) VS UCAM Murcia
1.57 Goals Scored 1.38
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.38
57% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
La Union (Malacitano)
(Home) 03 May
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0 Puente Genil
26 Apr
CD Extremadura
4 : 2 La Union (Malacitano)
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1 UCAM Murcia
12 Apr
Jaen
1 : 0 La Union (Malacitano)
04 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0 La Union (Malacitano)
Page 1 of 6
03 May
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0 Puente Genil
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1 UCAM Murcia
28 Mar
La Union (Malacitano)
3 : 1 Malaga B
15 Mar
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 2 Deportiva Minera
01 Mar
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0 Almeria B
Page 1 of 4
UCAM Murcia
(Away) 27 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 2 CF Intercity
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4 UCAM Murcia
13 Sept
UCAM Murcia
1 : 0 Valencia B
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1 UCAM Murcia
08 Aug
UCAM Murcia
7 : 2 Orihuela
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Baleares
1 : 4 UCAM Murcia
05 Sept
Castellonense
2 : 1 UCAM Murcia
03 May
Xerez CD
1 : 0 UCAM Murcia
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1 UCAM Murcia
05 Apr
Deportiva Minera
2 : 0 UCAM Murcia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:38 | 63 |
| 2 | Deportiva Minera | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 50:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Aguilas FC | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 45:25 | 61 |
| 4 | Xerez CD | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 32:24 | 59 |
| 5 | Jaen | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 43:33 | 58 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 41:25 | 57 |
| 7 | UCAM Murcia | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49:41 | 55 |
| 8 | Linares | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 42:45 | 47 |
| 9 | La Union (Malacitano) | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 44:43 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | 45 |
| 11 | Yeclano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 33:33 | 44 |
| 12 | Antoniano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38:40 | 44 |
| 13 | CD Estepona | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40:44 | 44 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 28:37 | 40 |
| 15 | Xerez Deportivo FC | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 34:43 | 36 |
| 16 | Melilla | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 36:40 | 34 |
| 17 | Almeria B | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26:53 | 21 |
| 18 | Malaga B | 34 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 32:66 | 21 |
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)
