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Lagarto vs Falcon

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025 Estadio Paulo Barreto de Menezes (Barretao), Lagarto
Wed, Mar 5, 2025
0 - 1
11:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Ueslei
45'
Alencar M.
46'
Sub
Davi Ceara In: Soares
Out: Davi Ceara

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Falcon advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Lagarto
15%
Draws
67%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Falcon come out ahead of Lagarto on wins alone.
  • Falcon are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Falcon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Falcon, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 23%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagarto Falcon
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 12 14
Draws 10 2
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.33 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Lagarto vs Falcon
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
2:2
Mar 5, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
3:0
Mar 23, 2024 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagarto 21 / 100
Falcon 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagarto Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lagarto scored in 73% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Falcon has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Lagarto stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagarto VS Falcon
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagarto

(Home)
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
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Falcon

(Away)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Confianca -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
Falcon 1
Itabaiana 2
Sergipe 0
America de Propria 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Confianca 5
Falcon 1
Itabaiana 2
America de Propria 1
Final
Confianca 3
Itabaiana 2