Sport Picks

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Lagarto vs Falcon

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025
Lagarto Logo

Lagarto

3 - 0
FT
Falcon Logo

Falcon

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Ronan
18' Event
Romulo
22' Event
Naylhor
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2025 game between Lagarto and Falcon finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lagarto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Lagarto
15%
Draws
67%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Lagarto haven't matched Falcon's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Falcon's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 23%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagarto Falcon
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 12 14
Draws 10 2
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.33 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Lagarto vs Falcon
1:2
Jan 10, 2026 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
2:2
Mar 5, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
3:0
Mar 23, 2024 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Falcon
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagarto Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Romulo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.26

Falcon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagarto 21 / 100
Falcon 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagarto Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagarto scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Falcon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.

Lagarto went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagarto VS Falcon
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagarto

(Home)
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
Page 1 of 7

Falcon

(Away)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Confianca 9 6 2 1 26:8 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 4 0 18:7 19
3 Lagarto 9 5 2 2 20:8 17
4 America de Propria 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 4 1 4 9:19 13
6 Falcon 9 4 0 5 11:15 12
7 Sergipe 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
8 Dorense 9 2 2 5 7:12 8
9 Barra SE 9 2 1 6 8:27 7
10 Carmopolis 9 0 3 6 10:16 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano 2025 (Play Offs)