Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lago Verde vs Pinheiro

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. This leg finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lago Verde
30%
Draws
31%
Pinheiro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lago Verde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Lago Verde have won more games recently than Pinheiro.
  • Model gives Lago Verde a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Lago Verde have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Pinheiro, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Lago Verde Clean Sheet 20%
Pinheiro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lago Verde Pinheiro
Matches Played 17 32
Wins 11 10
Draws 3 11
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 2.47 1.47
Goals Conceded 1 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Maranhense 2
Lago Verde vs Pinheiro
2:2
Jul 18, 2026 Maranhense 2
Pinheiro vs Lago Verde
0:2
Jun 21, 2026 Maranhense 2
Lago Verde vs Pinheiro
0:1
May 30, 2026 Maranhense 2
Pinheiro vs Lago Verde
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lago Verde 85 / 100
Pinheiro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lago Verde Pinheiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lago Verde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lago Verde's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 17 recent games.

Defensive concern: Pinheiro conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Lago Verde went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lago Verde VS Pinheiro
2.13 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lago Verde

(Home)
25 Jul
Lago Verde
1 : 2
Araioses
22 Jul
Lago Verde
2 : 2
Pinheiro
18 Jul
Pinheiro
0 : 2
Lago Verde
15 Jul
Lago Verde
5 : 2
Expressinho
11 Jul
Expressinho
0 : 1
Lago Verde
Page 1 of 4

Pinheiro

(Away)
22 Jul
Lago Verde
2 : 2
Pinheiro
18 Jul
Pinheiro
0 : 2
Lago Verde
15 Jul
Sao Luis
0 : 1
Pinheiro
11 Jul
Pinheiro
1 : 1
Sao Luis
28 Jun
Pinheiro
2 : 1
Viana
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Pinheiro 2
Sao Luis 1
Expressinho 2
Lago Verde 6
Cordino EC 1
Araioses 3
Tupan 1
Timon EC (MA) 6
Semi-finals
Pinheiro 2
Lago Verde 4
Araioses 2
Timon EC (MA) 1
Final
Lago Verde 1
Araioses 2