Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lagoa vs Alverca B

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Lagoa Logo

Lagoa

1 - 0
FT
Alverca B Logo

Alverca B

Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Tavares A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lagoa in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lagoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Lagoa
15%
Draws
54%
Alverca B
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alverca B lately — more wins on the board than Lagoa.
  • Model gives Alverca B a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 16%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagoa Alverca B
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs Lagoa
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Alverca B
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Alverca B Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagoa 23 / 100
Alverca B 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagoa Alverca B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagoa scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Alverca B has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Lagoa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lagoa VS Alverca B
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagoa

(Home)
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2
Lagoa
22 Mar
Lagoa
0 : 0
Malveira
15 Mar
Alverca B
2 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

Alverca B

(Away)
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
04 Apr
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Alcochetense
29 Mar
Alverca B
4 : 0
Portimonense B
22 Mar
Oriental
1 : 2
Alverca B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)