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Lajense vs Vitoria Setubal

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

84' Event
Ribeiro Pires H.
85'
Freitas B.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Setubal in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Setubal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lajense
20%
Draws
40%
Vitoria Setubal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Lajense haven't matched Vitoria Setubal's recent run of results.
  • Lajense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Lajense Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lajense Vitoria Setubal
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 17
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.45 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.59 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lajense vs Vitoria Setubal
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lajense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.8

Vitoria Setubal Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro Pires H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lajense 95 / 100
Vitoria Setubal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lajense Vitoria Setubal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lajense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lajense scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Lajense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Vitoria Setubal has conceded goals in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Lajense VS Vitoria Setubal
1.38 Goals Scored 1.6
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.8
88% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 60%

Recent Form & Match History

Lajense

(Home)
20 Sept
AD Fafe
4 : 0
Lajense
13 Sept
Real SC
5 : 5
Lajense
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
18 Apr
Lajense
1 : 0
Os Marialvas
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
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Vitoria Setubal

(Away)
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2
Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sintrense 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
2 Imortal 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Serpa 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
4 Lagoa 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
5 Juv. Evora 3 1 2 0 6:5 5
6 Real SC 2 1 1 0 6:5 4
7 Amora 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
8 Portel 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
10 GD Alcochetense 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
11 Aljustrelense 3 0 2 1 2:6 2
12 1º Dezembro 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
13 Lajense 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
14 Santa Clara B 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)