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Lamezia vs Castrumfavara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

73'
Mazza G.
82' Event
Diop M.
90' Event
Diop M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I game between Lamezia and Castrumfavara finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lamezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Lamezia
30%
Draws
12%
Castrumfavara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lamezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Lamezia haven't matched Castrumfavara's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Lamezia Clean Sheet 68%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lamezia Castrumfavara
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 8 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.36 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Castrumfavara
2:0
Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Castrumfavara
1:2
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Lamezia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lamezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Diop M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Castrumfavara Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lamezia 41 / 100
Castrumfavara 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lamezia Castrumfavara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lamezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lamezia scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Castrumfavara conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Lamezia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lamezia VS Castrumfavara
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lamezia

(Home)
04 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sept
Sambiase
4 : 1
Lamezia
20 Sept
Lamezia
0 : 3
Reggina
16 Sept
USD Ragusa
1 : 1
Lamezia
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
Page 1 of 6

Castrumfavara

(Away)
04 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sept
Castrumfavara
0 : 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 6 5 0 1 15:1 15
2 Vibonese 6 4 1 1 15:5 13
3 Sambiase 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Calcio Avola 6 4 0 2 9:10 12
5 Igea Virtus 6 3 2 1 14:11 11
6 Licata 6 3 2 1 8:8 11
7 Digiesse PraiaTortora 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
8 Milazzo 6 3 0 3 5:8 9
9 Athletic Palermo 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
10 Nissa 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 ASD Modica Calcio 6 2 1 3 6:5 7
12 Lamezia 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
13 Siracusa 6 3 2 1 8:5 4
14 Castrumfavara 6 1 1 4 5:7 4
15 Gela 6 1 2 3 4:6 4
16 USD Ragusa 6 0 2 4 4:9 2
17 Trapani 6 2 0 4 3:10 1
18 Enna 6 0 1 5 0:15 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)