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Lamezia vs Gela

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Catalano G.
66' Event
Sanzone M.

AI Match Summary

Lamezia in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lamezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Lamezia
35%
Draws
16%
Gela
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lamezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gela lately — more wins on the board than Lamezia.
  • Win probability leans Lamezia's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Lamezia Clean Sheet 68%
Gela Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lamezia Gela
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 8 4
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.34 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Gela
2:0
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs Lamezia
3:0
May 3, 2009 Serie C2/C
Gela vs Lamezia
3:1
Dec 7, 2008 Serie C2/C
Lamezia vs Gela
0:2
Feb 10, 2008 Serie C2/C
Gela vs Lamezia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lamezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Catalano G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sanzone M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gela Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lamezia 77 / 100
Gela 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lamezia Gela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lamezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gela's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Lamezia's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Lamezia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lamezia VS Gela
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lamezia

(Home)
06 Sept
Nissa
3 : 1
Lamezia
03 May
Lamezia
4 : 1
Igea Virtus
26 Apr
Sancataldese
1 : 1
Lamezia
19 Apr
Lamezia
1 : 1
ACR Messina
15 Apr
Milazzo
0 : 0
Lamezia
Page 1 of 6

Gela

(Away)
06 Sept
Sambiase
2 : 1
Gela
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0
Gela
26 Apr
Gela
1 : 1
Vibonese
19 Apr
Castrumfavara
3 : 1
Gela
12 Apr
Gela
0 : 0
Reggina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)