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Lamezia vs Paterno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Marigosu F.
16' Event
Spano D.
39' Event
Andreassi L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Lamezia and Paterno finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lamezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Lamezia
30%
Draws
12%
Paterno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lamezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lamezia come out ahead of Paterno on wins alone.
  • Model gives Lamezia a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Lamezia Clean Sheet 68%
Paterno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lamezia Paterno
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 4
Draws 10 5
Losses 12 21
Goals Scored 1.37 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Paterno
6:0
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs Lamezia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lamezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Marigosu F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Spano D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Paterno Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lamezia 95 / 100
Paterno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lamezia Paterno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lamezia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lamezia's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Paterno has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lamezia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lamezia VS Paterno
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lamezia

(Home)
20 Sept
Lamezia
0 : 3
Reggina
16 Sept
USD Ragusa
1 : 1
Lamezia
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Nissa
3 : 1
Lamezia
03 May
Lamezia
4 : 1
Igea Virtus
Page 1 of 6

Paterno

(Away)
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Reggina
2 : 0
Paterno
12 Apr
Paterno
0 : 0
Milazzo
02 Apr
Sambiase
3 : 1
Paterno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)