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Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Edu Salles
42' Event
Ndiaye M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Lanzarote
20%
Draws
38%
UD San Fernando
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lanzarote

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD San Fernando lately — more wins on the board than Lanzarote.
  • Model gives Lanzarote a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and UD San Fernando have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Lanzarote Clean Sheet 18%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lanzarote UD San Fernando
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 16
Draws 12 8
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando
1:1
Jan 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Lanzarote
2:0
Apr 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Lanzarote
2:1
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando
0:3
Jan 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Lanzarote
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lanzarote Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndiaye M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

UD San Fernando Compare

Top Goalscorer Edu Salles
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lanzarote 41 / 100
UD San Fernando 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lanzarote UD San Fernando

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Lanzarote stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Lanzarote's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Difficult form: UD San Fernando registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lanzarote VS UD San Fernando
1 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico Paso341813351:1967
2UD San Fernando34199649:2366
3Mensajero34189751:3163
4Tamaraceite34196956:3663
5Panaderia341510947:3355
6Las Palmas C341591058:4254
7Tenerife C3414101049:4652
8Villa Santa Brigida341551442:3550
9Lanzarote3412121045:3648
10Real Union Tenerife341291334:3245
11San Miguel341091537:4339
12CD Marino348151144:4039
13Union Sur Yaiza341081633:4338
14San Bartolome348121430:5536
15Arucas347121531:4733
16Herbania347111639:5832
17SD Tenisca34672132:6825
18Telde345101930:7125