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Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lanzarote host UD San Fernando in the Tercera RFEF - Group 12. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Lanzarote have averaged 1.09 scored and 1 conceded recently, against UD San Fernando's 1.54 scored and 0.6 conceded. Past meetings favor UD San Fernando slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.06 - 1.06) back UD San Fernando to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Lanzarote
30%
Draws
42%
UD San Fernando
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UD San Fernando

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and UD San Fernando come out ahead of Lanzarote on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on UD San Fernando taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors UD San Fernando here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Lanzarote Clean Sheet 20%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lanzarote UD San Fernando
Matches Played 33 35
Wins 9 20
Draws 14 9
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.09 1.54
Goals Conceded 1 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando
1:1
Jan 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Lanzarote
2:0
Apr 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Lanzarote
2:1
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs UD San Fernando
0:3
Jan 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Lanzarote
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lanzarote 20 / 100
UD San Fernando 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lanzarote UD San Fernando

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lanzarote found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (33 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Lanzarote has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

UD San Fernando let in goals in 40% of their last 35 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lanzarote VS UD San Fernando
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lanzarote

(Home)
03 Oct
Las Palmas C
1 : 2
Lanzarote
27 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Bartolome
19 Sept
Villaverde Norte
1 : 1
Lanzarote
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Miguel
06 Aug
Lanzarote
1 : 2
Arenas Getxo
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UD San Fernando

(Away)
04 Oct
UD San Fernando
3 : 0
Estrella
26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0
UD San Fernando
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0
UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3
UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3
Orihuela
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD San Fernando 4 3 0 1 11:2 9
2 Real Union Tenerife 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
3 Mensajero 4 3 0 1 4:2 9
4 San Bartolome 4 2 2 0 7:4 8
5 CD Marino 4 2 1 1 12:6 7
6 Las Palmas C 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
7 San Miguel 4 2 1 1 6:3 7
8 Panaderia 4 2 1 1 10:8 7
9 Los Llanos 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
10 Lanzarote 4 1 3 0 5:4 6
11 Villa Santa Brigida 4 1 2 1 4:4 5
12 Tenerife C 4 1 1 2 6:8 4
13 Estrella 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Anaza 4 1 1 2 5:8 4
15 Union Sur Yaiza 4 1 0 3 4:6 3
16 CD Laguna 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
17 Villaverde Norte 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
18 UD Playas de Sotavento 4 0 1 3 3:15 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 (Play Offs)