Sport Picks

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Larne vs Coleraine

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Charity Shield Inver Park, Larne
Fri, Jul 3, 2026
1 - 0
06:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Sloan D. In: Cosgrove T.
Out: Sloan D.
46'
Sub
O'Neill P. In: Ukek J.
Out: O'Neill P.
46'
Sub
McClelland S. In: Doherty R.
Out: McClelland S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Larne advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Larne
22%
Draws
18%
Coleraine
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Larne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Coleraine carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Larne taking it.
  • Coleraine arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Larne, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Larne Clean Sheet 68%
Coleraine Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Larne Coleraine
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 19 21
Draws 6 3
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 1.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 0.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Charity Shield
Larne vs Coleraine
1:0
Apr 7, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Larne vs Coleraine
1:4
Apr 4, 2026 Irish Cup
Coleraine vs Larne
2:1
Jan 2, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Larne vs Coleraine
3:0
Nov 25, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Coleraine vs Larne
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Larne 68 / 100
Coleraine 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Larne Coleraine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Larne scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Larne remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Coleraine's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Larne VS Coleraine
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Larne

(Home)
14 Jul
Larne
2 : 1
Tre Fiori
07 Jul
Tre Fiori
0 : 1
Larne
03 Jul
Larne
1 : 0
Coleraine
29 Jun
Harland & Wolff
1 : 2
Larne
23 Jun
Larne
1 : 0
Connahs Q.
Page 1 of 6

Coleraine

(Away)
18 Jul
Coleraine
3 : 0
Portadown
14 Jul
Sligo Rovers
1 : 2
Coleraine
11 Jul
Newbuildings
2 : 5
Coleraine
11 Jul
Coleraine
3 : 0
Portstewart
07 Jul
Limavady
0 : 1
Coleraine
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Larne1
Coleraine0