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Larne W vs Derry City W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Premiership Women Inver Park, Larne
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
O'Flaherty M.
19' Event
Crumlish-Hawes C.
27' Event
Crumlish-Hawes C.

AI Match Summary

The Premiership Women game between Larne W and Derry City W finished 1-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derry City W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Larne W
15%
Draws
65%
Derry City W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Derry City W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Derry City W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Derry City W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premiership Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • History favors Derry City W here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Larne W Clean Sheet 10%
Derry City W Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Larne W Derry City W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 10
Draws 3 2
Losses 25 18
Goals Scored 0.73 1.63
Goals Conceded 4.1 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Larne W
5:1
Jul 24, 2026 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Larne W
7:0
May 29, 2026 Premiership Women
Larne W vs Derry City W
1:6
Oct 1, 2025 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Larne W
1:0
Aug 15, 2025 Premiership Women
Derry City W vs Larne W
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Larne W Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Flaherty M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Derry City W Compare

Top Goalscorer Crumlish-Hawes C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sheerin C.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Larne W 10 / 100
Derry City W 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Larne W Derry City W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Derry City W conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Larne W found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Larne W has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Larne W VS Derry City W
0.38 Goals Scored 1.63
4.63 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Larne W

(Home)
04 Oct
Larne W
1 : 0
Lisburn Ladies W
25 Sept
Derry City W
5 : 1
Larne W
18 Sept
Crusaders W
3 : 2
Larne W
04 Sept
Crusaders W
3 : 0
Larne W
28 Aug
Lisburn Rangers W
5 : 1
Larne W
Page 1 of 6

Derry City W

(Away)
04 Oct
Crusaders W
2 : 3
Derry City W
25 Sept
Derry City W
5 : 1
Larne W
18 Sept
Derry City W
3 : 3
Lisburn Ladies W
04 Sept
Derry City W
0 : 4
Cliftonville W
26 Aug
Derry City W
1 : 0
Lisburn Ladies W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cliftonville W 14 13 0 1 65:10 39
2 Glentoran W 14 11 1 2 55:14 34
3 Linfield W 14 9 1 4 60:22 28
4 Lisburn Rangers W 14 8 1 5 35:30 25
5 Crusaders W 14 4 4 6 25:51 16
6 Derry City W 14 4 1 9 24:33 13
7 Lisburn Ladies W 14 1 2 11 6:54 5
8 Larne W 14 0 2 12 7:63 2
Promotion - Premiership Women (Championship Group)
Relegation - Premiership Women (Relegation Group)