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Lautaro vs Provincial Ovalle

Chile Chile

Segunda Division 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lautaro play Provincial Ovalle in the Segunda Division 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lautaro averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Provincial Ovalle averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Lautaro won 0, Provincial Ovalle won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 20, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Lautaro and 0.80 for Provincial Ovalle. This points to a Provincial Ovalle double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lautaro
18%
Draws
43%
Provincial Ovalle
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Provincial Ovalle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Lautaro picked up more points recently compared to Provincial Ovalle.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 0.80 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Lautaro Clean Sheet 26%
Provincial Ovalle Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lautaro Provincial Ovalle
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1.1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.3

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2024 Segunda Division
Lautaro vs Provincial Ovalle
1:1
Mar 11, 2024 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Lautaro
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lautaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Provincial Ovalle Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva Gaunes L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lautaro 40 / 100
Provincial Ovalle 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lautaro Provincial Ovalle

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Provincial Ovalle or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lautaro attacking → ← attacking Provincial Ovalle

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lautaro scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Provincial Ovalle let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Lautaro went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Provincial Ovalle lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 34
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1D. Concepcion26176353:2357
2Melipilla26176359:2554
3D. Puerto Montt26126831:2642
4Deportes Rengo26116933:2839
5San Antonio Unido26116931:4139
6General Velasquez26107940:3337
7Osorno2699842:4336
8Provincial Ovalle26961128:3133
9Concon National26951233:3632
10Linares Unido26861231:3230
11Trasandino26931423:3730
12Real San Joaquin26691127:4027
13Lautaro26831529:5227
14Arturo Fernandez Vial26381522:358