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Lavagnese vs Fossano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Oneto L.

AI Match Summary

Lavagnese in this Serie D - Group A 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lavagnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Lavagnese
15%
Draws
0%
Fossano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lavagnese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Lavagnese average 0.91 goals a game right now, well clear of Fossano's 0.83.
  • Model gives Lavagnese a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lavagnese have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 68%
Fossano Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lavagnese Fossano
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 10 4
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 0.91 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Fossano
1:0
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Fossano vs Lavagnese
0:1
Apr 14, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Fossano
1:0
Dec 4, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Fossano vs Lavagnese
4:1
Jun 19, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Fossano vs Lavagnese
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lavagnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Oneto L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Fossano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lavagnese 77 / 100
Fossano 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lavagnese Fossano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lavagnese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fossano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Difficult form: Fossano registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Lavagnese's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Lavagnese VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lavagnese

(Home)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 7

Fossano

(Away)
04 May
Chisola
5 : 0
Fossano
27 Apr
Fossano
0 : 1
AC Chieri
17 Apr
NovaRomentin
3 : 1
Fossano
13 Apr
Fossano
1 : 2
Derthona FbC
06 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 0
Fossano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bra 36 24 6 6 70:24 78
2 NovaRomentin 36 21 8 7 75:27 71
3 Gozzano 36 18 11 7 52:34 65
4 Vado 36 19 8 9 51:37 65
5 Lavagnese 36 18 10 8 49:35 64
6 Varese FC 36 17 11 8 47:34 62
7 Ligorna 36 16 10 10 55:42 58
8 Chisola 36 14 8 14 43:37 50
9 Saluzzo 36 12 14 10 39:35 50
10 Sanremese 36 10 15 11 31:33 45
11 Asti Calcio 36 11 12 13 36:46 45
12 Derthona FbC 36 11 11 14 41:50 44
13 Oltrepo 36 10 10 16 38:59 40
14 Imperia Calcio 36 10 8 18 52:58 38
15 Vogherese 36 8 13 15 31:44 37
16 Cairese 36 9 10 17 32:47 37
17 AC Chieri 36 7 10 19 33:58 31
18 Borgaro 36 8 4 24 34:77 28
19 Fossano 36 7 5 24 31:63 26
20 Albenga 0 0 0 0 0:0 -1
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2024/2025 (Play Out)