Sport Picks

Stadium Background

LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

LDU Quito play Guayaquil City in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, LDU Quito averaged 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Guayaquil City averaged 0.96 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. In past meetings, LDU Quito won 4, Guayaquil City won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 2, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.65 for LDU Quito and 0.73 for Guayaquil City. This points to a LDU Quito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
LDU Quito
20%
Draws
29%
Guayaquil City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • LDU Quito picked up more points recently compared to Guayaquil City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.65 vs 0.73 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 27%
Guayaquil City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Quito Guayaquil City
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 18 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.47 0.96
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City
1:0
Sep 5, 2023 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City
2:0
Apr 9, 2023 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito
1:2
Oct 15, 2022 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Guayaquil City
2:0
May 22, 2022 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Quito 51 / 100
Guayaquil City 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Quito Guayaquil City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: LDU Quito or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

LDU Quito attacking → ← attacking Guayaquil City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

LDU Quito scored in 74% of their last 34 games.

Guayaquil City let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

LDU Quito went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guayaquil City lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 34
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.71
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.43

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3Aucas1785420:1629
4LDU Quito1783619:1427
5Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
6U. Catolica1875628:1826
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Leones del Norte1865719:1923
9Macara1765616:1823
10Emelec1765614:1723
11Orense1764722:2422
12Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
13Guayaquil City1754814:2019
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312