Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Le Mans vs Boulogne

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
El Farissi A.
33'
Rossignol M.
58'
Sub
Mpembele Boula E. In: Capuano G.
Out: Mpembele Boula E.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Le Mans and Boulogne finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Le Mans.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Le Mans
35%
Draws
37%
Boulogne
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Boulogne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Le Mans carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Le Mans's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 20%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Mans Boulogne
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 6
Draws 12 12
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.63 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Le Mans
0:0
Oct 24, 2025 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Boulogne
1:0
Feb 14, 2025 Ligue 3
Le Mans vs Boulogne
1:0
Sep 13, 2024 Ligue 3
Boulogne vs Le Mans
3:2
Mar 11, 2022 Ligue 3
Le Mans vs Boulogne
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Le Mans Compare

Top Goalscorer Yohou S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Boulogne Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Mans 36 / 100
Boulogne 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Mans Boulogne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Le Mans found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Le Mans went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Boulogne has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Le Mans VS Boulogne
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Mans

(Home)
13 Sept
Le Mans
2 : 2
Lens
05 Sept
Nice
1 : 1
Le Mans
30 Aug
Rennes
3 : 2
Le Mans
22 Aug
Le Mans
2 : 2
Brest
15 Aug
Le Mans
0 : 1
Le Havre
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Boulogne

(Away)
11 Sept
Clermont
0 : 0
Boulogne
04 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 1
Dijon
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
21 Aug
Boulogne
1 : 1
Red Star
14 Aug
Guingamp
1 : 0
Boulogne
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)